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The short answer is to outperform Buy and Hold with less downside risk and with less time in the markets. Let us explain how we intend to accomplish this:
The stock market has a tendency to make
"major" up moves or "major" down moves for a certain
period of time; then for a while the markets go
nowhere, making only "minor" up or down moves at
best. It is our belief that the most money can be
made during the times of "major" moves.
Therefore, the purpose and design of our system is
to be invested at those times when our indicators point to
"major" up or down movements, and "enjoy"
a Money Market account when our indicators point to
a “trendless” market. The point being, that we are
disinterested in capturing every infinitesimal
percentage move of the market, we are happy to make
our 80% of fruitful rallies and maintain our cash
position while awaiting the next investment opportunity. By doing this again and again, we will be well ahead of Buy and Hold and thus would incur less downside fluctuations. As a natural concomitant to this strategy, we would be in the market for lesser periods of time and we would therefore be exposed to fewer occasions of risk.
MARKET-TRADING VS. BUY AND HOLD
Our model is designed to outperform a Buy and Hold strategy of an average
diversified Mutual Fund, Index Fund (like the S&P 500), or ETFs (like the QQQQ, SPY or IWM)
over the long term and to do so with less downside
fluctuations and with greater ease. We
agree that there are other ways in which money can
be made by investing in the stock market. One of
those potential ways is a simple “Buy and Hold”
strategy, namely, if you buy an Index Fund or a
diversified Mutual Fund and hold it for a long time,
you might have a return of 11-13% a year (The historical performance of the S&P 500 from 1985-2005 is 12.5%). The problem with this example is: 1) This is not a satisfactory return, and 2) The downside fluctuations inherent in this type of performance are massive, e.g., in the last bear market (2000-2002) alone, the pendulum swung approximately 40% from the high to the low. We are not satisfied to see our account values go down 40%. Consequently, our system is designed to tell us when to get out protecting our profit, not losing money, sitting in cash, (and may even sell short) and to go back in hopefully at a lower price and thus we are able to outperform a strategy of Buy and
Hold.
Here is how TimingStock compares to Buy and Hold, tracking maximum drawdowns and time spent in the market, using the QQQQ as an example.
September, 2004
(First live signal) till August, 2006
|
QQQQ |
Drawdown |
Time in the market |
|
TS
Long only |
10.3% |
50% |
|
TS
Long and Short |
10.3% |
58% |
|
Buy and
Hold |
17.4% |
100% |
June, 1999
(Back-tested) till August, 2006
|
QQQQ |
Drawdown |
Time in the market |
|
TS
Long only |
10.3% |
41% |
|
TS
Long and Short |
10.3% |
62% |
|
Buy and
Hold |
82% |
100% |
In addition, when you invest without an
“exit” strategy, you are at risk to make the wrong
decisions with respect to when to sell. Even if one considers
himself to be a long-term investor (or a “Buy and
Hold” investor), there is a chance that they will sell at the low,
because as the market declines, one loses confidence
or becomes jittery, and oftentimes will sell at or near the low.
(-Historically, there are tremendous mutual fund
outflows near a market bottom, and tremendous
inflows near a top. Some traders even use this
statistic as a contrarian indicator-) And this is where it becomes of paramount importance to have a system that has a built-in, proven risk management umbrella in the event the market goes against your position.
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