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UPDATE 06/17/07
STOCKS:
Last
week’s update indicated that the Dow needed to stay
above the June 8th lows to maintain a
bullish outlook. After testing those lows this week,
the uptrend resumed as the Dow ran back up towards
the previous all time highs.
The
trend can continue up as long as 13,480 holds. I do
believe that a top will be seen this summer,
followed by a significant decline into the fourth
quarter and possibly lasting into the end of the
first quarter of next year.
I
would expect to see some warning signs of a top when
the time comes.
BONDS:
The
daily MACD is starting to turn up, but hasn’t
confirmed a low is in place yet. There is a gap on
the September bonds at 108 that may be the first
upside target. There is still strong resistance at
110 however.
GOLD:
This
has been a roller coaster like market the past few
months, so time will tell if last week is the start
of a major breakout or yet another fake out.
The
XAU should stay above 138 if this is the start of a
major advance. There is resistance up at 142.50.
The
last time that the CCI reading was this low on
August gold was October 2006. That was followed by a
$ 100 plus up move over the next 5 months. A similar
move is possible from here into the fall.
If you want to play this potential up move, you can
buy shares in the miners index ETF, symbol GDX.
Regards and Good Luck,
Jay
Sanderson
TimingStock.com
To
see Jay's past Market Commentary and other products,
please click here
www.reliablestockcycles.com
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Commentary Archives
Long term cycle is bullish -
1/06/07
Next Cycle Low is due In March
-1/27/07
Market still positive -
2/05/07 | 
